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Breaking News - Experts predicted the Sichuan earthquakes, the brief was sent to officials

After the Sichuan earthquake on May 12, researcher Li Shihue of the Engineering Geology Section, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, and Chinese Academy of Sciences said on his blog that evening that “the seismologist who predicted the quakes has no more tears left to cry: today’s quakes were predicted”. This attracted widespread attention, with many followed up postings condemning the officials for ignoring expert warnings.

Li Shihue said in his article that “after hearing of the 7.8 earthquake, Chinese seismologist Geng Qingguo could not be more upset and he is deeply hurt inside.

Geng Qingguo is a researcher of the China seismology bureau, and vice president of the Natural Disaster Prediction Committee commissioned under the Chinese Geophysical Society.

According to Li Shihue, Geng Qingguuo prediced in 2006 that an earthquake measuring above 7 on the Richter scales would occur in the Aba region, where Sichuan is situated. On April 26 and 27 of this year, a report was produced after a group discussion by the Natural Disaster Prediction Committee, warning that “within one year (May 2008 to April 2009), there is likely to be earthquakes ranging between 6~7 on the Richter scale which would occur near the boarders of Sichuan, Gansu and Qingdao provinces. (the written report was sent to the China seismology bureau on April 30). In addition, Geng Gingguo was able to accurately predict that the time frame of the strong quake is around May 8, give or take 10 days, but the officials made no response.

In 1976 Geng Qingguo accurately predicted the earthquake of Tangshang, but as officials would not allow the capital Beijing to be sent into chaos, they ignored his warnings. Geng was removed from his post after the earthquakes, and he was ostracised by mainstream seismologists and is being seen to have infringed on the rights of those in power.

The above news is brought to you by Fang Liang and Chris Thomas for Breaking News on the SOH Radio Network